The end is nigh

Claims of end of the world always catch the attention, but there may be some justification this time around. Global warming increasingly seems to be living up to the dire predictions claimed by the environment movement.

Katrina was a warning, as is the drought in Eastern Australia. And a string of observations are pointing in the same direction. Climate is a complex thing, and no one event can be specifically ascribed to global warming, but climate scientists predict climatic events will be more severe as global warming takes hold.

There was one scientific indicator that was not in synch, and so was used to question global warming - lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellites. But recent research has found errors in calibrating the satellites, and reviews of observations have come into line with other measurements of global warming.

Then last Saturday’s Canberra Times reported observations which suggest the melting of the northern polar icecap is well and truly underway. The implication is sea-level rise, from melting of ice over Greenland and the Arctic. And, during discussion of Katrina, I heard that it’s all speeding up, because the heat sink which was the ocean has reached its limit.

“The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a ‘tipping point’ beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice, and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically”

and…

“The number of high-strength cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, has nearly doubled in 35 years in all five of Earth’s ocean basins, which scientists say could be linked to global climate change.”

Both quotes from “Ice melt may be past recovery”. In Canberra Times, Saturday 17 Sept 2005, p. 20

After arguing against global warming for years, even Bush & Co have recently conceded that it’s occurring, but of course, they have their own response to promote.

Alternative voices have been effectively defeated for now. I often feel there’s nothing to do but sit back and watch Rome burn, and have the pleasure of saying “I told you so”. For me, this response has been growing over time, but it’s firmed up following the result of the last federal election, the strength of the right, the poverty of Labor, and the sleepiness of the citizenry. This may be a satisfying response, but it’s self-defeating. Anyone with kids has to fear this outcome. It seems much closer than we imagined only a few years ago.

I’m also amused by the whole concern over petrol prices. What we don’t pay now for petrol, we’ll be paying soon enough. That is, assuming petrol is still available for private use. I can’t see private cars being feasible in 20 years time, at least not ones that run on petrol. But it’s not just petrol for cars. Oil is the basis of so much in society – three’s no alternative for air transport; plastics and fertilisers are by-products; delivery of oranges from California or computers from China requires it. Does this herald a return to local production? Perhaps under computer control from another spot on the Earth. The future looks exciting, but also perilous. I’ll see the start of it, but our kids will make in this big change … or suffer the big crash.