I’ve written here before on peak oil. It will cause huge changes in our economies. I was about to say it’s being ignored, as it’s not a hot topic of political conversation. But really it’s influencing lots around us: the Iraq war; the Toyota Prius; even high rise construction near Canberra city centres.
And today there was another Canberra Times’ Opinion piece on peak oil. Here are some quotes:
“The Oil Age … is about to come to an end … Not as doom-mongering environmentalists have falsely predicted, because the black gold is about to run out. But much more subtly, because world production will start falling in the next few years, demand will outrun supply, and prices will shoot up.”
I can’t see that the environmental movement ever got it wrong here. It’s strange that the author, or perhaps his confidant, seems to have to stick the boot in. I don’t think environmentalists ever suggested there was a tap that would turn off from one day to the next. The “tap”, when it arrives, will be rationing by various militaries and governments. And this tap won’t be turned off from one day to the next (short of some major emergency) but it will be turned off from one year to the next. Some sort of rationing will be necessary. But we are yet to see whether the decisions on rationing will be as sensible as the initial decision to ration.
“Over lunch Matthew Simmons, chairman of one of the world’s largest oil investment companies and an advisor to the US president, predicted that the price would reach $US100 ($A130) a barrel within three years, more that three times as high as just a few years ago. This month it topped $US79 ($A91).”
“The orthodox oil industry view is that there is plenty of time: peak oil will not occur until the 2030s … US production peaked in 1971, Britain’s in 1991. The British-based Association for the Study of Peak Oil estimates that the Middle East’s peak is just five years away; Simmons believes it may already have passed”
“The end of the oil age is in sight, but who’s looking?” By Geoffrey Lean. In Canberra Times, 20 Sept 2005, p.11.
20 September 2005
19 September 2005
The end is nigh
Claims of end of the world always catch the attention, but there may be some justification this time around. Global warming increasingly seems to be living up to the dire predictions claimed by the environment movement.
Katrina was a warning, as is the drought in Eastern Australia. And a string of observations are pointing in the same direction. Climate is a complex thing, and no one event can be specifically ascribed to global warming, but climate scientists predict climatic events will be more severe as global warming takes hold.
There was one scientific indicator that was not in synch, and so was used to question global warming - lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellites. But recent research has found errors in calibrating the satellites, and reviews of observations have come into line with other measurements of global warming.
Then last Saturday’s Canberra Times reported observations which suggest the melting of the northern polar icecap is well and truly underway. The implication is sea-level rise, from melting of ice over Greenland and the Arctic. And, during discussion of Katrina, I heard that it’s all speeding up, because the heat sink which was the ocean has reached its limit.
“The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a ‘tipping point’ beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice, and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically”
and…
“The number of high-strength cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, has nearly doubled in 35 years in all five of Earth’s ocean basins, which scientists say could be linked to global climate change.”
Both quotes from “Ice melt may be past recovery”. In Canberra Times, Saturday 17 Sept 2005, p. 20
After arguing against global warming for years, even Bush & Co have recently conceded that it’s occurring, but of course, they have their own response to promote.
Alternative voices have been effectively defeated for now. I often feel there’s nothing to do but sit back and watch Rome burn, and have the pleasure of saying “I told you so”. For me, this response has been growing over time, but it’s firmed up following the result of the last federal election, the strength of the right, the poverty of Labor, and the sleepiness of the citizenry. This may be a satisfying response, but it’s self-defeating. Anyone with kids has to fear this outcome. It seems much closer than we imagined only a few years ago.
I’m also amused by the whole concern over petrol prices. What we don’t pay now for petrol, we’ll be paying soon enough. That is, assuming petrol is still available for private use. I can’t see private cars being feasible in 20 years time, at least not ones that run on petrol. But it’s not just petrol for cars. Oil is the basis of so much in society – three’s no alternative for air transport; plastics and fertilisers are by-products; delivery of oranges from California or computers from China requires it. Does this herald a return to local production? Perhaps under computer control from another spot on the Earth. The future looks exciting, but also perilous. I’ll see the start of it, but our kids will make in this big change … or suffer the big crash.
Katrina was a warning, as is the drought in Eastern Australia. And a string of observations are pointing in the same direction. Climate is a complex thing, and no one event can be specifically ascribed to global warming, but climate scientists predict climatic events will be more severe as global warming takes hold.
There was one scientific indicator that was not in synch, and so was used to question global warming - lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellites. But recent research has found errors in calibrating the satellites, and reviews of observations have come into line with other measurements of global warming.
Then last Saturday’s Canberra Times reported observations which suggest the melting of the northern polar icecap is well and truly underway. The implication is sea-level rise, from melting of ice over Greenland and the Arctic. And, during discussion of Katrina, I heard that it’s all speeding up, because the heat sink which was the ocean has reached its limit.
“The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a ‘tipping point’ beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice, and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically”
and…
“The number of high-strength cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, has nearly doubled in 35 years in all five of Earth’s ocean basins, which scientists say could be linked to global climate change.”
Both quotes from “Ice melt may be past recovery”. In Canberra Times, Saturday 17 Sept 2005, p. 20
After arguing against global warming for years, even Bush & Co have recently conceded that it’s occurring, but of course, they have their own response to promote.
Alternative voices have been effectively defeated for now. I often feel there’s nothing to do but sit back and watch Rome burn, and have the pleasure of saying “I told you so”. For me, this response has been growing over time, but it’s firmed up following the result of the last federal election, the strength of the right, the poverty of Labor, and the sleepiness of the citizenry. This may be a satisfying response, but it’s self-defeating. Anyone with kids has to fear this outcome. It seems much closer than we imagined only a few years ago.
I’m also amused by the whole concern over petrol prices. What we don’t pay now for petrol, we’ll be paying soon enough. That is, assuming petrol is still available for private use. I can’t see private cars being feasible in 20 years time, at least not ones that run on petrol. But it’s not just petrol for cars. Oil is the basis of so much in society – three’s no alternative for air transport; plastics and fertilisers are by-products; delivery of oranges from California or computers from China requires it. Does this herald a return to local production? Perhaps under computer control from another spot on the Earth. The future looks exciting, but also perilous. I’ll see the start of it, but our kids will make in this big change … or suffer the big crash.
Look about in fear
I need only quote from Brian Toohey in the recent Canberra Sunday Times to demonstrate a frightening trend. The action on Scott Parkin, the proclaimed pacifist and anti-Hallibuton protestor, is a warning of an uncertain future.
“In 2002, Carr introduced the Terrorism (Police Powers) Act which protects police who abuse their powers. The new law states that nothing the police do during a declared terrorism incident, whether a false alarm or not, may be challenged, reviewed, quashed or called into question on any grounds whatsoever before any court, tribunal, body or person in any legal proceedings. Removing any role for the courts, as Carr has done, undermines fundamental protections all citizens are supposed to enjoy in a free society.
“Those of a conservative disposition, who believe in imposing checks and balances on the power of the state, cannot be heartened by the plans of the Western Australian and South Australian Labor governments to give more authority to the police so long as they invoke the justification that they are handling a suspected terrorism situation. Although full details are lacking, it seems the police will be able to issue their own search warrants, without bothering with court approval.
“At the federal level, the courts are being pushed aside also their proposed new laws to allow preventive detention of suspects without charge and for the federal police to skip the normal warrant process and order companies to produce materials of alleged relevance to terrorism and other serious offences, so far unspecified.”
“Politicians should stop stirring up terror plot” by Brian Toohey. In Canberra Sunday Times, 18 Sept 2005, p.25
“In 2002, Carr introduced the Terrorism (Police Powers) Act which protects police who abuse their powers. The new law states that nothing the police do during a declared terrorism incident, whether a false alarm or not, may be challenged, reviewed, quashed or called into question on any grounds whatsoever before any court, tribunal, body or person in any legal proceedings. Removing any role for the courts, as Carr has done, undermines fundamental protections all citizens are supposed to enjoy in a free society.
“Those of a conservative disposition, who believe in imposing checks and balances on the power of the state, cannot be heartened by the plans of the Western Australian and South Australian Labor governments to give more authority to the police so long as they invoke the justification that they are handling a suspected terrorism situation. Although full details are lacking, it seems the police will be able to issue their own search warrants, without bothering with court approval.
“At the federal level, the courts are being pushed aside also their proposed new laws to allow preventive detention of suspects without charge and for the federal police to skip the normal warrant process and order companies to produce materials of alleged relevance to terrorism and other serious offences, so far unspecified.”
“Politicians should stop stirring up terror plot” by Brian Toohey. In Canberra Sunday Times, 18 Sept 2005, p.25
12 September 2005
For the record
I was just reading the New Scientist, and this quote appeared. I've recorded it here for future reference, in case we get another invasion justified by more bullshit (see formal definition in the previous post).
"'The biggest smoking gun that everyone was waving is now eliminated' A senior official, speaking anonymously, on the still-confidential finding that traces of uranium found two years ago in Iran came from contaminated equipment from Pakistan and is not proof of a clandestine weapons programme (The Washington Post, 23 August)."
New Scientist, No. 2514, 27 August 2005, p. 9.
It's been amusing me for some time how the US government, and presumably intelligence community, can still make claims of hidden weapons programs in countries thay've been railing against for other reasons for some time. It was Abraham Lincoln, that renowned American (sadly of another era) who said: "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". Wise words? Hope so.
Brian Toohey wrote an article on governments ignoring warnings of danger. He compared the US Government's tardy response to Katrina, despite plenty of warnings, with its ready action over WMD that didn't exist in Iraq. He noted that the Australian intelligence officer, Lance Collins, got it right in a memo to superiors dated 15 March 1998. But now, what do we find? Bush is still in place, and beset with problems, but Collins ..."resigned a few weeks ago, after being frustrated by efforts to undermine his contributions on the intelligence front".
Be very worried when truth is ignored in the pursuit of a pre-defined end. Facts will get you in the end, despite your strongest beliefs.
"When warnings of danger are ignored" by Brian Toohey. In Canberra Sunday Times, 11 Sept 2005, p. 24.
"'The biggest smoking gun that everyone was waving is now eliminated' A senior official, speaking anonymously, on the still-confidential finding that traces of uranium found two years ago in Iran came from contaminated equipment from Pakistan and is not proof of a clandestine weapons programme (The Washington Post, 23 August)."
New Scientist, No. 2514, 27 August 2005, p. 9.
It's been amusing me for some time how the US government, and presumably intelligence community, can still make claims of hidden weapons programs in countries thay've been railing against for other reasons for some time. It was Abraham Lincoln, that renowned American (sadly of another era) who said: "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". Wise words? Hope so.
Brian Toohey wrote an article on governments ignoring warnings of danger. He compared the US Government's tardy response to Katrina, despite plenty of warnings, with its ready action over WMD that didn't exist in Iraq. He noted that the Australian intelligence officer, Lance Collins, got it right in a memo to superiors dated 15 March 1998. But now, what do we find? Bush is still in place, and beset with problems, but Collins ..."resigned a few weeks ago, after being frustrated by efforts to undermine his contributions on the intelligence front".
Be very worried when truth is ignored in the pursuit of a pre-defined end. Facts will get you in the end, despite your strongest beliefs.
"When warnings of danger are ignored" by Brian Toohey. In Canberra Sunday Times, 11 Sept 2005, p. 24.
Is the truth still important to you?
I like quotes, but I steer clear of them. They are too packaged, and they define you thinking too easily. But these two concern spin and so are relevant, and, at least the second one helped me understand something very important, and very frightening, about current politics and society. Or, put another way: never mind the truth, seek the power.
“No matter how cynical you become, it is never enough to keep up.” Lily Tomlin
“… Princeton academic Harry Frankfurt’s distinction between lying and bullshit: a liar still cares about the truth, a bullshitter does not.”
“Too much cynicism is never enough” by Ron Ceberona. In Canberra Times, 10 Sept 2005, Panorama, p. 15. Review of the book Your call is important to us: the truth about bullshit / Laura Penny.
“No matter how cynical you become, it is never enough to keep up.” Lily Tomlin
“… Princeton academic Harry Frankfurt’s distinction between lying and bullshit: a liar still cares about the truth, a bullshitter does not.”
“Too much cynicism is never enough” by Ron Ceberona. In Canberra Times, 10 Sept 2005, Panorama, p. 15. Review of the book Your call is important to us: the truth about bullshit / Laura Penny.
01 September 2005
Just what planet do economists live on? No. 2
Here’s a note I wrote about 12 years ago, and I have just rediscovered. I remember this as a revelation at the time, and I’ve been searching for the book’s title ever since! The comment concerns itself with assumptions in Economics, but the implications stand for any discipline. Assumptions are useful, and even necessary, but they can be dangerous, and they always require testing at some stage.
Tumbling dice / Brian Toohey … gave some incredible (I assume true) facts about the neo-classical economic establishment in Australia, eg, did you know that the economic model developed by the Industry Commission assumes (as does neoclassical economics) that the movement of money (the financial system) has no cost (!), and that, when the IC was to do an inquiry into the banking system (for banking system, read a major earner of profits in Australia), it had to develop an extension to its model because the whole banking system was missing!
Tumbling dice : the story of modern economic policy / Brian Toohey. Port Melbourne : William Heinemann Australia, 1994.
Tumbling dice / Brian Toohey … gave some incredible (I assume true) facts about the neo-classical economic establishment in Australia, eg, did you know that the economic model developed by the Industry Commission assumes (as does neoclassical economics) that the movement of money (the financial system) has no cost (!), and that, when the IC was to do an inquiry into the banking system (for banking system, read a major earner of profits in Australia), it had to develop an extension to its model because the whole banking system was missing!
Tumbling dice : the story of modern economic policy / Brian Toohey. Port Melbourne : William Heinemann Australia, 1994.
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