Another end is nigh

I’ve written here before on peak oil. It will cause huge changes in our economies. I was about to say it’s being ignored, as it’s not a hot topic of political conversation. But really it’s influencing lots around us: the Iraq war; the Toyota Prius; even high rise construction near Canberra city centres.

And today there was another Canberra Times’ Opinion piece on peak oil. Here are some quotes:

“The Oil Age … is about to come to an end … Not as doom-mongering environmentalists have falsely predicted, because the black gold is about to run out. But much more subtly, because world production will start falling in the next few years, demand will outrun supply, and prices will shoot up.”

I can’t see that the environmental movement ever got it wrong here. It’s strange that the author, or perhaps his confidant, seems to have to stick the boot in. I don’t think environmentalists ever suggested there was a tap that would turn off from one day to the next. The “tap”, when it arrives, will be rationing by various militaries and governments. And this tap won’t be turned off from one day to the next (short of some major emergency) but it will be turned off from one year to the next. Some sort of rationing will be necessary. But we are yet to see whether the decisions on rationing will be as sensible as the initial decision to ration.

“Over lunch Matthew Simmons, chairman of one of the world’s largest oil investment companies and an advisor to the US president, predicted that the price would reach $US100 ($A130) a barrel within three years, more that three times as high as just a few years ago. This month it topped $US79 ($A91).”

“The orthodox oil industry view is that there is plenty of time: peak oil will not occur until the 2030s … US production peaked in 1971, Britain’s in 1991. The British-based Association for the Study of Peak Oil estimates that the Middle East’s peak is just five years away; Simmons believes it may already have passed”

“The end of the oil age is in sight, but who’s looking?” By Geoffrey Lean. In Canberra Times, 20 Sept 2005, p.11.